Chat with GPT: What has changed with the electoral law reform of March 2023?

In March 2023, the German Bundestag passed a comprehensive reform of German electoral law. The aim was to reduce the size of the Bundestag and make the rules clearer and fairer. The Bundestag has become ever larger in recent years. It is actually supposed to have 598 MPs, but due to so-called overhang and compensatory mandates, there were most recently 736 MPs in parliament (as of 2021).

Disclaimer

In this blog series, I ask ChatGPT on a variety of topics, from world politics to everyday issues, to get concise summaries and answers. The answers provided by ChatGPT are generated from large datasets, which may include biases, for example from Western perspectives. While the model strives for accuracy, it can sometimes produce incorrect or misleading information. I do not take responsibility for the validity of the content. Though I aim to ensure that the answers reflect common sense, I encourage you to cross-check facts and verify information through trusted sources. You are also welcome to reach out to me with suggestions for improvement.

ChatGPT’s answer

What has changed?

The reform brings three main changes:

1. Fixed Bundestag with 630 seats: There used to be 598 seats, now there are always 630 seats, so slightly more, but constant. If you only had 598 seats, mathematical problems could arise because it would be too “tight” to represent all parties fairly in proportion to their second votes - especially if one party wins many direct mandates.

2. Elimination of overhang and compensatory mandates: In the past, it could happen that a party won more direct mandates (first vote) than it was entitled to according to second votes. This led to overhang mandates and all other parties received compensatory mandates. This inflated the Bundestag. Such additional mandates no longer exist after the reform and only the second vote counts for the distribution of seats. This makes the distribution of seats much simpler, as the calculation of these compensatory mandates is very complicated because it is carried out at the level of the individual federal states and must exactly reproduce the nationwide ratio of second votes. Often with dozens of additional mandates.

3. “Basic mandate clause” no longer applies: Previously, if a party was below 5% but won at least 3 direct mandates, it was still allowed to enter the Bundestag with all second votes. This exception no longer applies.

Example calculation

Party	Second votes (%)	Seats according to second votes (out of 630)	Direct mandates (out of 299)	Before the reform (estimated)	After the reform
Party A	35 %	221	240	240 seats + compensation for other parties → Bundestag grows strongly	221 seats - 19 direct mandates forfeited
Party B	30 %	189	40	189 seats + compensatory seats	189 seats - 40 direct mandates, remainder from the list
Party C	35 %	220	19	220 seats + compensatory mandates	220 seats - 19 direct mandates, remainder from the list
Total	100 %	630 seats	299	>630 seats due to overhang + compensation	630 fixed seats

In the past, the election result often led to a very bloated Bundestag. In the example, party A wins 240 direct mandates, although it is only entitled to 221 seats according to the second votes. In the past, this would have led to 19 overhang seats. To balance this out fairly, the other parties would have received additional compensatory seats and the Bundestag would have grown significantly.

Since the electoral law reform of 2023, things have been different: there are no more overhang and compensatory mandates and Party A may only retain 221 seats, the surplus 19 direct mandates are forfeited. The direct mandates with the “weakest” results will expire first and those from constituencies with the highest vote shares will be retained. Party B and C receive exactly as many seats as they are entitled to according to the second votes. Their direct mandates are taken into account, the rest comes from the list.

Conclusion

The electoral law reform of 2023 fundamentally changed and significantly simplified the German electoral system. The distribution of seats in the Bundestag is now based solely on the result of the second vote. This eliminates the complicated calculation of overhang and compensatory mandates, which in the past regularly led to a bloated parliament. Instead of a Bundestag with over 700 MPs, the size now remains constant at 630 seats. This not only makes the system leaner and more cost-effective, but also more transparent and fairer. The proportions in parliament now reflect the will of the electorate much more directly, because no party gains an advantage through many direct mandates that is not covered by second votes.

However, this has also made the first vote less important. Although it still decides which candidate wins the constituency, these direct mandates only count if they fit into the party’s overall result based on second votes. So if you really want to influence the composition of the Bundestag, you should make conscious use of the second vote in particular.