Chat with GPT: Wie verändert der neue Wirtschafts-Korridor das Machtgefüge im Südkaukasus?

The South Caucasus is facing a geopolitical upheaval: a new economic corridor through Armenia connects Azerbaijan with Turkey – and noticeably weakens the decades-long influence of Russia and Iran in the region. But what does this project mean for the balance of power between East and West?

Disclaimer

In this blog series, I ask ChatGPT on a variety of topics, from world politics to everyday issues, to get concise summaries and answers. The answers provided by ChatGPT are generated from large datasets, which may include biases, for example from Western perspectives. While the model strives for accuracy, it can sometimes produce incorrect or misleading information. I do not take responsibility for the validity of the content. Though I aim to ensure that the answers reflect common sense, I encourage you to cross-check facts and verify information through trusted sources. You are also welcome to reach out to me with suggestions for improvement.

ChatGPT’s answer

What exactly happened?

On August 8, 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a historic peace agreement that, in addition to bringing a permanent end to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, also provides for the construction of a new transnational economic corridor: the so-called Zangezur Corridor, now known as TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). The agreement was not prepared in Moscow, but in Abu Dhabi and was finally concluded with the mediation of the US – a symbolic break with Russia’s previous role as regional peace broker.

The new corridor is intended to connect Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan via Armenia’s Syunik region with the Azerbaijani mainland – without detouring through Iranian or Russian territory. The plan is to build a modern infrastructure route consisting of railways, roads, pipelines, and fiber optic connections, which will be under Armenia’s legal sovereignty. However, the agreement stipulates that US companies will receive exclusive rights to develop and operate this infrastructure for a period of 99 years.

▶ Source: Financial Times on the deal
▶ Background: Wikipedia on the agreement

Russia’s declining influence

For decades, Russia was considered the dominant power in the South Caucasus – both as a mediator in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and as a key player in regional transit. But this position has been shaken.

During the Second Karabakh War in 2020, Armenia lost large areas to Azerbaijan, including seven surrounding districts that it had controlled since the 1990s. Russia did not intervene, even though it had guaranteed Armenia’s protection in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). When Azerbaijan also recaptured the remaining part of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, almost the entire Armenian population fled. Once again, Russia remained passive – a breach that deeply shook Armenia’s trust in Moscow.

Since then, Armenia has been increasingly turning away from the Kremlin and seeking new partnerships. The peace agreement with Azerbaijan, which was reached through Western mediation without Russian involvement, is an expression of this reorientation.

▶ Background: The war over Nagorno-Karabakh ▶ Analysis: Le Monde on Russia’s weakness

The transformation in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations

Just a few years ago, Armenia and Azerbaijan were considered bitter enemies. Today, they are united by a common interest: economic development, regional integration, and strategic independence. The corridor through Syunik is becoming a symbolic bridge between the two states—and at the same time a geopolitical dividing line between Russia and Iran.

▶ Armenia’s realignment

Who benefits – and who loses

USA

With the TRIPP corridor, the USA is securing long-term influence for the first time in a region that has been largely dominated by Russia until now. With 99-year development rights for American companies, Washington controls key transport, energy, and data infrastructure between Europe and Asia. At the same time, the American presence in the Caspian region is strengthened.

Turkey

Turkey is also among the winners. The corridor connects it directly to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia via Azerbaijan for the first time. Ankara sees this as a geopolitical enhancement of its role as a bridge between Asia and Europe – and strengthens its partnership with the Turkic-speaking states in the region.

▶ Report: Turkey welcomes corridor

EU and Europe

For Europe, it offers an alternative east-west route outside Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. The corridor is compatible with the EU Europe-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor and could further strengthen trade relations with Central Asia and energy independence from Russia.

Iran

Iran views the corridor with growing mistrust. The new route completely bypasses Iranian territory – and threatens to massively weaken Tehran’s role as a regional transit state. Although Tehran initially signaled

Challenges in implementation

The construction of the corridor is no easy undertaking. The Syunik region is located in a mountainous area that is difficult to access and frequently affected by landslides and seismic activity. Extensive investment in tunnels, bridges, avalanche protection, and electrification is required to realize the planned infrastructure. The expansion of the railway line alone could cost up to US$2 billion—a figure that has not been officially confirmed but is circulating in expert estimates.

The project also remains politically sensitive. Although relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have formally been pacified, mistrust runs deep. Implementation requires not only technical expertise, but also security guarantees and robust international monitoring. It also remains to be seen how Russia and Iran will react to the changes in the future – a blockade, for example through border closures or targeted destabilization, cannot be ruled out.

▶ Background: Geopolitical Monitor on the corridor

Geopolitical relevance

Even though the planned Zangezur Corridor is currently making headlines primarily for geopolitical reasons, the question arises as to its actual economic significance for Europe and Asia. In the short term, this remains limited, but in the medium to long term, the corridor could become a strategically important piece of the puzzle in the growing diversification of international trade routes.

Traditionally, the largest flows of goods between Asia and Europe have been via sea through the Suez Canal and via the Russian Northern Route by rail. However, the latter has come under considerable pressure due to the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and political uncertainties. In response, interest is growing in a so-called middle transit route that leads to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey—the so-called Middle Corridor.

The Zangezur Corridor could complement this middle route by shortening transit times, bypassing logistical bottlenecks, and creating new connection options. However, this requires significant investment in infrastructure, efficient border clearance, and smooth links to existing trade networks – especially in Georgia and Turkey.

Figures show that this alternative route is growing, but still in its infancy: in 2022, all transport via the Middle Corridor

Conclusion

The planned economic corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through Armenia’s Syunik region is fundamentally changing the strategic balance in the South Caucasus. Russia and Iran, long-time dominant players in the region, are effectively being outmaneuvered. Turkey and, above all, the US are gaining influence – with economic presence, diplomatic reach, and geopolitical leverage. For the EU, a new connection to the East is opening up, promising not only symbolic but also infrastructural independence from authoritarian regimes.

Economically, the corridor is still supplementary at present, but its importance is growing with every geopolitical crisis. As part of the so-called Middle Corridor, it could play a key role in trade between Asia and Europe in the future – not because of its current volume, but because of its strategic potential. In a world where stability is becoming the exception, new routes, new alliances, and new options are more important than ever.

The Zangezur Corridor is thus much more than an infrastructure project. It is an expression of a realignment of the global order in which old centers of power are losing influence—and new connections are emerging that point the way to the future.